Is voting inherited?

So, is voting behavior inherited? According to three fellow Political Science professors, the answer might — might — be yes…

In the latest issue of the American Political Science Review, James Fowler and Christopher Dawes of the University of California-San Diego and Laura Baker of the University of Southern California, suggest in “Genetic Variation in Political Participation” (download it for free at APSA’s website) that a significant proportion of the variation in voting turnout can be accounted for by genes.

Genetic effects account for around 50% of the variance.  Everything not genetic — whatever they may be — account for the rest.

One thought that we have, considering that only 50% of the variance is explained via genetics: Factor Analysis.

Nota Bene: Today’s Reading Assignment

• Late-Period Limbaugh — Zev Chafets, New York Times
• Bush Can Take Pride in Scorn — Mark Davis, Dallas Morning News
• Why More Jews Won’t Vote Dem This Year — Jennifer Rubin, Jerusalem Post
• What Latinos Want from Their President — Alberto Gonzales, Los Angeles Times
• ’60s Begin to Fade as Liberal Professors Retire — Patricia Cohen, New York Times
• The Three Geographies of This Election — Joel Kotkin and Mark Schill, The Politico
• GOP’s Flawed Attack on Obama — Noam Scheiber, The New Republic
• Attacking McCain’s War Record Not Working — Jay Newton-Small, Time Magazine
• The Return of Thomas Malthus — Robert Kaplan, The Atlantic
• Debating Obama’s ‘Move’ to the Middle — Ed Kilgore, RealClearPolitics
• Area residents seek upgrades from city — Jennifer Friedberg, Houston Chronicle
  
• End of Wes Clark’s VP Campaign — Steve Kornacki, New York Observer
• Dallas Cowboys stadium bonds rise in cost for Arlington — Jeff Mosier, Dallas Morning News
• McCain Not Fundraising for GOP — Aaron Blake, The Hill
• Obama Opposes Gay Marriage Ban — John Wildermuth, San Francisco Chronicle
• Grill Power: Elitist feminism and the New York Times — Heather MacDonald, City Journal
• In Praise of Political Insults — By Joseph Tartakovsky, Wall Street Journal
• Citizen Stupid — Rick Shenkman, Mother Jones
• Guts or a PhD? — The Economist
• The Conservative Welfare State — Peter Ferrara, American Spectator
• Cindy’s fortune: An asset and a liability — Kenneth Vogel, The Politico
• Decades Later, Still Asking: Would I Pull That Switch? — Benedict Carey, New York Times
• Can Barack Buy the Presidency? — Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal
• The Battle for Catholic Voters — Amy Sullivan, Time
• Why I’m Not Patriotic — Matthew Rothschild, The Progressive

APSA: Waffles and piousness, please…

About a week ago or so, I posted regarding the American Political Science Association’s (APSA) passion play over a resolution that would keep pro-gay marriage activist members happy by moving APSA’s annual meeting out of New Orleans in 2012.  Ironic, given New Orleans’ reputation as a gay-friendly town.  If you’re not familiar with the story, APSA considered moving the 2012 meeting because the state of Louisiana had the temerity to place an amendment in their state Constitution mandating that marriage is between one man and one woman.  Man, that terrible inconvenience known as federalism really sucks sometimes, doesn’t it?

In an amusing twist, the APSA Council emphasized that “communities hosting APSA meetings will be expected to assure the civil rights and safety of all APSA members.”  So I guess that precludes a meeting in Harare or Pyongyang anytime soon.  Maybe not.  APSA President Dianne Pinderhughes’ statement noting that “conditions at the local level can mitigate these [civil rights] circumstances” would suggest otherwise.  Since APSA is still looking for a 2013 meeting site, perhaps they should consider Myanmar.  I hear that conditions at the local level in Yangon (Rangoon) assure the civil rights and safety of visitors…

Note the key words in Pinderhughes’ statement: “civil rights” and“safety.“  Nice.  So by invoking “civil rights” and “safety” in support of gay marriage, the APSA Council engages in something that is in direct violation of the APSA Constitution — namely, Article II, Section 2, which states that APSA  “… will not commit its members on questions of public policy nor take positions not immediately concerned with its direct purpose,” which, last time that I checked, was the study of politics — not political engagement.

So much for that notion.  Instead, we get a public display of latte liberal piousness masquerading as “concern” over an issue that directly politicizes APSA.  Count me out.  And forget about getting my membership renewal payment…

Hat tips to Professor John McAdams’ at Marquette Warrior Blog and Professor Matthew Franck at National Review’s Bench Memos!

Tyranny of the Old: Are senior citizens hurting politics?

An interesting video discussion from the New York TImes.  Reason Magazine Senior Editor Kerry Howley talks with The Cato Institute’s Will Wilkinson about how elderly voters are distorting American politics.  Click the image above to watch.

Nota Bene: Today’s Reading Assignment

• Tyranny of the Old — Will Wilkinson and Kerry Howley, New York Times Video
• Court Will Be Last Bastion of Conservatives — E. J. Dionne, Washington Post
• Obama Faces Netroots Revolt Over FISA — Ari Melber, The Nation
• Hillaryland at War — Gail Sheehy, Vanity Fair
• Do the Math: Obama Won’t Win the South — Thomas Schaller, New York Times
• The GOP’s December Surprise — James K. Galbraith, Mother Jones
• Drill Now as the conservative MoveOn? — Avi Zenilman, The Politco
• Women prefer men with stubble for love, sex and marriage – Roger Dobson, London Daily Telegraph
• Can’t Darwin and God get along? — Vincent Rossmeier, Salon Magazine
• Obama Turns Centrist — Ruth Conniff, The Progressive
• Strange Currencies — Eliza Caney, National Journal
• McCain game plan worries insiders — David Paul Kuhn, The Politico
• Free the Fireworks! Can individual citizens be trusted to celebrate Independence Day with a bang? — Greg Beato, Reason Magazine
• Starbucks to close 600 US stores, rein in growth – Jessica Mintz, Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Happy Canada Day!

Parliament Hill in Ottawa…

Happy Canada Day to you all! it’s Canada’s 141st birthday today.

We particularly wish a happy Canada Day to our friend and colleague, Dr. Patrick Malcolmson at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, NB as he begins his duties as STU’s new VP Academic!

Food Court Lunch Blog offers some helpful facts about Canada.  Heh.

Party on, eh?

Gallup’s Congressional generic ballot: Democrats favored to gain House seats in November

There is a new post on Gallup’s website today about the Congressional generic ballot.  Given the shifts in party identification (PID) in the last couple of years toward the Democrats, as well as Bush’s approval level, it’s mildly surprising that it’s “only” an 11-point spread.

It is generally assumed that the spread will close as the election approaches — it usually does.  The spread will also close if the McCain-Obama race remains highly competitive.  The million dollar question is GOP turnout, particularly in light of all of the discussion about Republican enthusiasm.  If GOP turnout manages to narrow the Democrats’ advantage, then the Republicans’ House losses might — might — be relatively small.  However, if Democratic support levels remain anywhere near where they are now, expect a return to pre-1994 Democratic levels in the House and a gain of at least 15-20 seats.  Even if the Democrats advantage is reduced to 5 points or so, it should still guarantee a gain of anywhere between 5-10 seats or so in the House.

While the generic ballot is a good predictor of House seats gained/lost, it’s not perfect.  It is, in fact, a better predictor for mid-term election years than Presidential years.  That being said, it has to be of real concern to both the RNC and NRCC, as well as the McCain campaign.  Self-reported party ID levels, combined with a generally favorable playing field for the Democrats, suggest that the generic ballot numbers might be a good predictor this time around.

In fact, since 1950 (when Gallup first started polling with the Congressional generic ballot question), the Republicans have held an advantage only twice — both times in mid-term elections: 1994 and 2002 — years that saw the GOP win more votes nationally and more House seats than the Democrats.

Feel free to cuss and discuss.  We’ll be doing so this afternoon over some Guinness Extra Stouts…

Memory Hole Candidate: Marxists/Socialists/Communists for Obama Blog…

“Marxists/Socialists/Communists for Obama“…

Perhaps former Weather Underground leader Bill Ayers had more influence than has previously been reported…

From their blog intro:

This group is for self-proclaimed Marxists/Communists/Socialists for the election of Barack Obama to the Presidency. By no means is he a true Marxist, but under Karl Marx’s writings we are to support the party with the best interests of the mobilization of the proletariat. Though the Democratic Socialists of America or the Communist Patty of America may have more Socialistic values, it is pointless to vote for these candidates due to the fact that there is virtually no chance they will be elected on a National level. The members of this group are not Leninists, Stalinists, etc. and do not support or condone the actions of North Korea, China, Cuba or any other self-proclaimed “Marxist States.” They do not in anyway represent the Marxist philosophy nor do they represent Socialism/Communsim. We support Barack Obama because he knows what is best for the people!

Huh?  Whatever.  We’re sure that the Obama campaign will love this little meme: He ain’t a Muslim, he’s a commie sympathizer…

Our advice to these Marxian bloggers: Go sell your Che t-shirt, drink some normal coffee, and take a Political Theory course that can actually explain — in painful detail — that Marxism really does equal Leninism, Stalinism, and Maoism…  Hell, make ‘em read all three volumes of Marx and Engels’ Das Kapital and they’ll likely become Polo-wearing, beer-drinking Finance majors by the end of the Fall Semester.

Where NOT to go on your next vacation…

Forbes Magazine’s Liz Moyer and Andrew Farrell have a discussion regarding the World’s Most Corrupt Countries.  Somalia and Myanmar tie as the most corrupt countries on Earth.   The Bottom 10?

1. (tie) Myanmar
1. (tie) Somalia
3. Iraq
4. Haiti
5. (tie) Uzbekistan
5. (tie) Tonga
7. (tie) Sudan
7. (tie) Chad
7. (tie) Afghanistan
10. (tie) Laos
10. (tie) Guinea
10. (tie) Equitorial Guinea
10. (tie) Democratic Republic of Congo

The only surprise is who is missing from the list: Zimbabwe. Why it didn’t crack the Bottom 10 is beyond us (it is in the Bottom 20…).  Another year or so of Mugabe’s thuggish brutality, stolen elections, the continual killings of the opposition, and massive starvation ought to correct that oversight by 2009…

Nota Bene: Today’s Reading Assignment

• Pioneering Chinese City Offers a Peek at Political Ferment — Edward Cody, Washington Post
• Some on Left Target McCain’s War Record — Ben Smith, The Politico
• Dreams From Obama’s Grandmother — Victor Davis Hanson, National Review
• Attacks on Michelle Obama Won’t Work — Ed Kilgore, The New Republic
• Is Carly Fiorina McCain’s VP Answer? — Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call
• Obama Works to Close Faith Gap — Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics
• Obama’s Iraq Problem - George Packer, The New Yorker
• The Function of Dysfunction — Nathan Reeson, Chronicle of Higher Education
• Obama’s Boys of Summer — Daniel Flynn, City Journal
• McCain’s Univeralism vs. Obama’s Particularism - Gregory Scoblete, RealClearPolitics
• Democrats, Not Just Obama, Are Weak with Whites - Peter Brown, Wall Street Journal
• A Game Changer Left Unchanged by the Game — Thayer Evans, New York Times
• Hard Times for Student Borrowers — James H. Ewert, In These Times
• Editorial: How The Next President — Whoever It Is — Should Deal With Our China Problem — The New Republic
• What Pawlenty Can’t Do for McCain — Steve Kornacki, New York Observer
• Reputation makes or breaks a cult beer — Tom Feran, Houston Chronicle

Is Mayor White ready for state politics?

Gardner Selby, writing in today’s Austin American-Statesman poses that question…

If the methodologically weak Texas Lyceum Poll is to believed, maybe yes, maybe no.

Three discussion points regarding White and the Governor’s race in 2010:

1. Does Bill White actually have the strong name identification outside of Houston that we, living in Houston, assume that he has?
2. Assuming an Obama victory in 2008, will 2010 — a mid-term election with the Democrats playing defense — really be a good playing field for a Democrat running statewide in Texas?
3. Assuming that Kay Bailey Hutchison is the nominee for Governor, could White defeat her?

While the Texas Lyceum Poll is not the best measure to make an assessment of White’s chances, their numbers nonetheless suggest that he has some name ID work to do before mounting a statewide effort.

Fortunately for White, he can afford to take a wait-and-see approach to his post-Mayor future. 2010 is a long way off.  An Obama win may mean a return trip to D.C.  An Obama loss may strengthen his case for a Gubernatorial run in 2010.  A run by KBH for Governor may mean a run by White for the Senate instead, potentially against a Perry-appointed incumbent (a la Krueger vs. KBH), perhaps Greg Abbott or maybe even The Dew.  This is assuming, of course, that KBH doesn’t do her usual flirting with a run for Governor and then backs away — again. Oh, and did we mention Rick “I’m Running Again” Perry?  If KBH actually pulls the trigger and runs, she would be the prohibitive favorite to win — even against ol’ Slick Rick.

However, as college football has so painfully taught us, correlation does not imply causation — in this case, that the prohibitive favorite does not always equal the actual winner in the 2010 Governor’s race…

Stay tuned!

Fun with GIS: Rotten Neighbor…

One of our students saw this site and it made her think of our Urban Government class…

For grins, we typed in UST’s zip code (77006) in the box below…

… and this is what it came up with.  The red houses are primarily sex offenders.  Joy.  On the upside, the yellow houses are foreclosures if you’re looking to move inside the Loop and near the University…

Unfortunately, Rotten Neighbor — while interesting — doesn’t provide anything close to a full picture of area crimes or bad neighbors.  Sadly, neither does the Clery Act nor HPD’s crime stats site, since both are lagged by at least a month and are for reported crimes only.

Hat tip to Elizabeth Rinaldi!

Humor Aside II: Statistics

From the good folks at the always humorous “Stuff White People Like” Blog.  As statisticians, we enjoyed it because the probability that it would peeve everyone approaches 100%…  Heh.

White people hate math. If you want to befriend white people, mention “that weird Asian calculus teacher who drew perfect circles” and how much you hated his class (bonus points if you mention how your parents made you get an even worse tutor who was more clueless than you and smelled bad). However, white people are fascinated by “the power of statistics” since the math has already been done for them. Some magazines, like TIME, have a section in each magazine that has some interesting statistics ($80 trillion: the amount spent by the US in the Iraqi war) followed by absurd, barely related ones (4,317 yards: the distance covered if you were to take all the ammunition shells fired by US soldiers in Iraq since the war started). White people who read TIME will quote these statistics, but even non-TIME reading white people will throw in stats they read in a less-than-credible study. It’s not unusual to hear such things as “I don’t mind this neighborhood since I’m not Republican. 80% of them are anti-minority, you know” or “I don’t think you should let Sally play softball because 70% of softball players are lesbians”.

White people  love sounding smarter than their peers and will jump at any chance to use a statistic if it’s applicable to the conversation in any way. The more absurd the statistic, the more clever and original you will seem. Stats can also hide negative feelings. If you meet a white person who wishes went to a school that they refer to as the “Harvard of the (Region where the university they attended is), they may say something like “Good thing I didn’t go to an Ivy since 35% of their graduates reported being unhappy with their lives”. It is considered rude to laugh and you should instead smile or throw in another appropriate statistic if handy.

The only time you should not use a statistic is to ask a white person if they knew “that (random number) % of statistics aren’t true”. You will be seen as being unoriginal, not funny, and will get stared at.

Disclaimer: 100% of these statistics were made up

Nota Bene: Today’s Reading Assignment

• ‘Exceptions’ let some schools fall short on tests and still boost state ratings — Holly Hacker and Katherine Unmuth, Dallas Morning News
• Dallas tougher than Houston on apartments’ owners — Mike Snyder, Houston Chronicle
• Longshots in the veepstakes — Lisa Lerer, The Politico
• Political Freelancers Use Web to Join the Attack — Jim Rutenberg, New York Times
• Dobson vs. Obama — Peter Wehner, Washington Post
• The Waitress Test: Obama’s Challenge With Working-Class Women — Connie Schultz, The Nation
• How Can a “Fellow Black Republican” Oppose Obama? — Larry Elder, Townhall.com
• Microsoft: The meaning of Bill Gates — The Economist
• What onions teach us about oil prices — Jon Birger, Fortune Magazine
• Parenting - So Ready to Send the Kids Off to College — Michael Winerip, New York Times
• Habitat for Houston — Will Holder, Houston Chronicle
• What Will It Take to Save Zimbabwe? — Alexandra Fuller, Vanity Fair
• Hansen Unhinged — Patrick Michaels, National Review
• America’s Economic Outlook: A Symposium — The American Magazine
• Editorial: Obama’s America is Canada – Washington Times
• Editorial: Don’t Give Bush Too Much Credit — Philadelphia Inquirer
• A silver bullet for Obama? — Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe
• Character judgment — Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
• Yes, it’s messy, but toppling Mugabe may be the only option — Martin Ivens, The Times of London
• No Babies? - Declining Population in Europe — Russell Shorto, New York Times
• Drug Wars Next Door – Clarence Page, RealClearPolitics
• A New Political Geography — Alec MacGillis, Washington Post
• Our Broken Senate –Norman Ornstein, The American Magazine

Mexicans and Machines: Why it’s time to lay off NAFTA

Thoughts to ponder from Drew Carey at Reason TV. Yes, that Drew Carey.  He’s definitely not your usual Hollywood liberal:

Campaign season is just getting warmed up, but looking back on the primaries we’ve already seen plenty of the usual fare: candidates shaking hands, hanging out at diners, and scaring voters about foreigners who are taking your jobs.

Sometimes the threat comes from China, Japan, or outsourcing to India. Today, it’s NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement—you know, all those Mexicans taking our jobs.

Senator Barack Obama joins the likes of CNN’s Lou Dobbs in decrying NAFTA. So many free trade foes fret about cheap foreign labor, yet they rarely holler about competitors who will work for far less than any foreigner. Politicians don’t pay much attention to it, but—from Terminator to Ice Pirates—Hollywood films have been warning us about humanity’s inevitable war against the machines.

“Now, think about it,” says Reason.tv host Drew Carey. “How are we supposed to compete against something that doesn’t get paid, doesn’t get health insurance, and never goes on breaks?”

Today, we don’t need human workers to book our travel, do our banking, or file our taxes. From factory workers to symphony conductors, countless workers are locked in battle with soulless job stealers known as computers, websites, and robots.

“No job is safe from the robot threat!” warns Carey. Of course, the warning is more than a little tongue-in-cheek. There’s no need to take a sledgehammer to a robot, because, although technology shakes up the labor market, it ends up giving us higher living standards as well as more and better job opportunities.

Like technology, trade gives us more good stuff than bad—yet Americans are likely to cheer technology and fear trade. No doubt TV talkers and White House wannabes will keep stoking our fears of foreigners until voters and viewers stop buying it—or until robots snag their jobs, too.

Related: Why Are These People So Ashamed of NAFTA? The Democratic myths about free trade – Steve Chapman, Reason Magazine