There is a new post on Gallup’s website today about the Congressional generic ballot. Given the shifts in party identification (PID) in the last couple of years toward the Democrats, as well as Bush’s approval level, it’s mildly surprising that it’s “only” an 11-point spread.
It is generally assumed that the spread will close as the election approaches — it usually does. The spread will also close if the McCain-Obama race remains highly competitive. The million dollar question is GOP turnout, particularly in light of all of the discussion about Republican enthusiasm. If GOP turnout manages to narrow the Democrats’ advantage, then the Republicans’ House losses might — might — be relatively small. However, if Democratic support levels remain anywhere near where they are now, expect a return to pre-1994 Democratic levels in the House and a gain of at least 15-20 seats. Even if the Democrats advantage is reduced to 5 points or so, it should still guarantee a gain of anywhere between 5-10 seats or so in the House.
While the generic ballot is a good predictor of House seats gained/lost, it’s not perfect. It is, in fact, a better predictor for mid-term election years than Presidential years. That being said, it has to be of real concern to both the RNC and NRCC, as well as the McCain campaign. Self-reported party ID levels, combined with a generally favorable playing field for the Democrats, suggest that the generic ballot numbers might be a good predictor this time around.
In fact, since 1950 (when Gallup first started polling with the Congressional generic ballot question), the Republicans have held an advantage only twice — both times in mid-term elections: 1994 and 2002 — years that saw the GOP win more votes nationally and more House seats than the Democrats.
Feel free to cuss and discuss. We’ll be doing so this afternoon over some Guinness Extra Stouts…
