Does McCain have more of a base problem than Obama?

The graph above is from data compiled from Rasmussen Reports, consisting of over 7,000 likely voter interviews conducted within the past week.  

The combined favorable numbers are not very different from one another. Obama’s combined favorables among Democrats are at 82% and McCain’s combined favorables among Republicans are at 84%. However, the aggregate favorable numbers conceal information about the strengths and weaknesses of both Obama and McCain.

A greater number of Democrats’ — roughly 8% — have a very unfavorable view of Obama. They will likely not vote for Obama under any circumstances. Only 4% of Republicans feel that way about McCain. The aggregate unfavorables are also quite similar, 18% for Obama and 16% for McCain. If the Democrats can reduce the Democratic defection rate from 2000 and/or 2004, Obama will win.  

The more revealing number from Rasmussen — and one that could make a significant difference for down-ballot races, including Harris County — is the enthusiasm level. 56% of Democrats have a very favorable view of Obama, while just 34% of Republicans have a very favorable view of McCain. Fortunately for McCain, 52% of Republicans have a very unfavorable view of Obama, while only 33% of Democrats feel that way about McCain. There may be little enthusiasm for McCain among Republicans, but there is decidedly even less enthusiasm for an Obama Presidency. Conversely, strong enthusiasm among Democrats, combined with deep pockets, could (and likely would) overcome Republican GOTV efforts and potentially have a cascade effect on down-ballot races.

Cuss and discuss among yourselves. It’s Friday in the Bayou City and we’re heading to Hans’ Biergarten for some well-deserved beers and sausages…

 

Hat tip to FiveThirtyEight!