On Friday, Newsweek released a national poll showing Obama leading McCain by 15 points, 51%-36%. This seemed like quite a jump from other polls that had McCain down by anywhere between two to six points. The media picked up on the story without, of course, discussing the methodology — a key component left out of the discussion.
Gallup/USA Today released their poll today showing an Obama lead of 50%-44% over McCain. Much closer to what we’d expect. The question one has to ask: Is Newsweek’s methodology flawed or is every other poll flawed? Likely answer: Newsweek. Newsweek’s numbers seemed like just too much of an outlier (even for Faletta and he’s a fervent Obama supporter). Sure enough, Newsweek’s methodology was flawed. They surveyed 1010 people. Of those, 896 were registered voters, comprised of 324 Democrats, 231 Republicans, and the remainder independent. Huh?
Looking at both the Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics polling averages, there is not a single other poll that has Obama up by anything more than six points.
Compare the Newsweek poll to the USA Today/Gallup poll of 1310 likely voters which has Obama up by six. Gallup’s daily tracking has Obama up by three. Rasmussen polled 3000 likely voters and has Obama up by four.
Make no mistake about it, McCain is behind Obama in the polls — and faces an uphill battle against Obama. But as scholars from both sides of the political aisle, we believe that it is important to point out the flaws in the Newsweek poll and to remind people — again — that June 23rd is a long way from November 4th!
Now… back to our beers! 
Just thought you should know that the LA Times has a new poll out showing Obama up by 12 points.